[China Refrigeration Network] After more than two months of national war "epidemic", the current situation of epidemic prevention and control in China continues to improve. At a time when the war situation is turning around, the global epidemic situation is surging and spreading in a large area, which is worrying, "controlling population flow" or the only option. At present, many countries have already begun to close their cities. If the overseas economy presses the "pause button", what will the air conditioning industry, which is a major exporter, face?
First of all, looking back on the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on national exports, the export growth showed a cliff-like decline in that year: in 2008, exports accounted for 31% of GDP. Affected by the financial crisis in Europe and the United States, the export growth rate fell from 17% in 2008 to minus 16% in 2009, thus causing a very big negative impact on the overall economy, especially export-related industries.
However, after the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese government has realized the disadvantages brought by relying on exports. After years of efforts, the growth rate of exports in GDP has dropped to 17%, the lowest in more than 10 years, 16% lower than in 2008. Therefore, even if the external demand presses the pause button, the impact on the domestic economy will be far lower than in 2008.
At the same time, the proportion of domestic air-conditioning industry exports is also declining, from 38.4% in 2008 to 25.2% in 19, down 13.2%. Except for the sharp decline in 2009 due to the financial crisis (down 9.3% month on month), the proportion of other years is steadily declining.
Resumption 2009: Affected by the international financial crisis, China's air-conditioning exports suffered a severe winter in 2009. From January to August, China's air-conditioning export volume has been lower than that of the same period in 2008. In the peak season of air-conditioning sales, the export volume in April was only 4.092 million units, down 27.15% from the same period of last year, while the export volume in May decreased by 43.83%, the largest decline in the whole year in 2009. With the economic situation in Europe, America and other major countries improving, starting from August 2009, China's air-conditioning export volume gradually overtook that of the same period in 2008. In September, the air-conditioning export volume reached the same level as that of the same period in 2008. Then, the export volume continued to grow year on year in the following three months: October, November and December, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.37%, 43.36% and 75.27%.
According to customs data, China's total exports of air-conditioning products to the United States in 2009 (6.186 million units) accounted for 26.05% of the total, down 21.04% from the same period in 2008. At the same time, exports to some major European countries plunged even more sharply, with exports to Italy falling by 53.38% and exports to Greece falling by 68.89%. In addition, among the major exporting countries and regions in Asia, the total exports to India and Hong Kong decreased by 60.71% and 35.84% respectively.
Looking forward to 2020: From March 2020 onwards, all parts of the world affected by the epidemic, whether in Europe, the United States or Southeast Asian countries, will begin to close their cities one after another. We expect that domestic air-conditioning exports will begin to be affected in April. It is understood that since the second half of 19, many air conditioning enterprises have focused on export business: the total output of air conditioning industry in March was -10.4% year-on-year, of which domestic output was -29.2% year-on-year, but export output was +12.8% year-on-year. In addition, due to the switch of new energy efficiency standards this year and the delay in opening the domestic market, the current inventory of the air conditioning industry is high. According to industry online data, the overall inventory of the air conditioning industry was 46.02 million units at the end of January, up 1.6% from the previous month and at a high level over the years. Once the export of domestic air conditioners is restricted due to the closure of cities in various countries in April, it will inevitably lead to passive production reduction in the air conditioning industry. However, we expect that the probability of this situation is not small. It is estimated that the trend of air-conditioning export in 20 years will repeat the trend similar to that in 2009. The export volume will decline year-on-year until August. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth will not occur until the peak season in September. The annual export volume may decline by about 5%.